A Trumpian world...

If I were an ‘old school’ American, deeply attached to the liberal tradition of my country, faithful to the democratic edifice built over more than two centuries, an American symbolised by the Statue of Liberty, which welcomed tens of millions of immigrants who came to build this privileged nation, an American proud of the American dream, proud - despite the many failures and endemic violence - of the progress of multiculturalism, proud of what a figure like Barack Obama represents, an American attached to traditional alliances, to this notion of an interdependent West, the pillar of a relatively stable international order if not a just one (far from it)... If I were that American, I would be appalled by the intensity of the upheaval, of the storm.

I would tell myself that I am an endangered species. Marginalised by the extraordinary rise to power of other Americans, those I barely know, from the furthest reaches of Kansas, Montana, Wisconsin or the arid expanses of Texas. These small-town, rural American ‘white folk’, the flyovers (those you fly over on the way from New York to Los Angeles...). And also those who arrived from elsewhere, converts in every sense of the word, working day in and day out with their papers in order and determined to close the door behind them. I would be appalled by this alliance between these ‘people’, these American people, and a resentful, angry, impulsive, egocentric billionaire with a criminal record, with multiple felony convictions, and who was responsible for a near-coup d'état four years ago. An ageing (78 year old) man, indestructible, untouchable and, in his own way, a political genius, capable of surviving anything.

If I were American, I would be more than alarmed by the alliance between Donald Trump and the tech billionaires who are determined to consolidate their digital conquest of the world (almost as if they were supervillains, the evil heroes from a James Bond film). By leading us to believe that they embody freedom, true freedom, the ultimate, unhindered freedom of speech, against the elitism of the traditional media... I would be appalled by Elon Musk's pivotal status. He too is a genius, it must be said, the richest man in the world (largely boosted by US government subsidies), owner of a highly influential social network, the algorithms of which he can manipulate at will. And whose ‘Roman-style salutes’ with outstretched arms are anything but ambiguous. I would be appalled by the power of this unelected individual, whose influence over the President of the United States is abundantly clear, as if he were his younger, even more flamboyant double.

But I am not American, and all I can do is watch. Watch as the rules of the popular vote create a situation in which Donald Trump is back in spite of his countless scandals. Watch as Donald Trump channels anger and frustration. Watch as he inspires hope with promises of a powerful America and a new economic golden age. He is ‘reactionary’, anti-’ woke‘, pro-’White‘, pro-God (in appearance, in any case), pro-’business', and it works in a country where the middle and working classes are weakened by the global economy, societal developments, the feeling of racial downgrading, the inexorable mixing of the country's population, and the supposed contempt of the elites and the big coastal cities.

Donald Trump intends on establishing a hyper-presidential administration, freeing himself as much as possible from statutes, laws and conventions. He wants to win the cultural war once and for all against liberals, Democrats, leftists and Marxists, who are stuck in their woke and bourgeois convictions. He wants to transform America from within, ban abortion, dismantle federal education, return power to the states (especially those that vote Republican), erase the questions and complexities of gender, return freedom to capitalists and entrepreneurs, erase environmental constraints, exit the Paris Agreement, ‘drill, baby, drill’ to restore America's energy omnipotence. Sink affirmative action, diversity legislation, and also quell the campuses, especially those that have the audacity to demonstrate for the rights of the Palestinians. America must be made richer, and to do that, public spending must be slashed, a mission entrusted to the ubiquitous Elon Musk (who sees the country as his own company to run). America must be made safer and all illegal immigrants must be deported, tens of millions if necessary. Even if these migrants are one of the pillars of America's incomparable economic dynamism.

The project is both vague and eminently concrete. An unbridled America, freed from norms, political correctness, bureaucracy and even, in some cases, the law. With a dizzying mix of old and new. We talk about the merits of a President McKinley – whose term began in 1897, who added Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines and Puerto Rico to US territory and who also liked customs tariffs – an ideology inherited from the conquest of the West and the railway era, while seeking to plant the star-spangled banner on Mars. Or to spend 500 billion dollars on artificial intelligence. Trump is at once a popular uprising and an ultraliberal dream, technology and closed borders, autocracy, oligarchy and the liberation of the people. Everything and its opposite, with the nagging feeling that true democracy will be the main victim of the experiment... Reality and complexity fade away in the face of the dictates of a liberated power, in the face of perceptions, tweets and Facebook posts. And the almost Orwellian, daily presence of Donald Trump on every screen.

America is the centre of the universe. And what it does, what it decides, the morality of those in power involve us and have an impact on us. We can't live ‘outside it’. Even if the liabilities are heavy, with, among others, Vietnam, Iraq, and very recently the unspeakable tragedy of Gaza, the principle until now was that of a globally reasonable power, attached to the multilateral order and its alliances. That story ends here. America wants to assert its global power. To impose its rules and its interests (legitimate, yet negotiable boundaries) and its deals and transactions. It wants to expand again – yes, that's the word employed – it wants to be imperial again. Greenland is theirs (whatever Denmark, their historical ally, may think). The Panama Canal too (unless the Chinese leave, just in case...). Latin America will have to toe the line on immigration issues. Mexico and Canada, major trading partners in NAFTA, are threatened with destructive taxes. They have to go to Canossa, or pretend to. The Mexicans know their big neighbour to the north and have been wary of it for ages. But for the Canadians, friends, almost cousins, one can imagine the astonishing feeling of betrayal. The Europeans are expecting the worst (the Union is one of Trump's negative obsessions). The Chinese and Russians are preparing for a long game of poker with variable rules. Ukraine could well be sacrificed. And why not Taiwan too? It will depend on the quid pro quo... And the Prime Minister of Israel knows that the apparently warm friendship of the American president, anxious to bring about his new Middle East version of the Abraham Accords, could prove to be quite variable.

Overall, the political concept of the West, that of a structured camp of allies with Washington at its centre, is disappearing. All that matters now is America, a true world nation (with all its ethnic, religious and racial diversity), a military and economic superpower that is (apparently) self-sufficient. It is also a slightly worried world-nation, determined to ensure its domination, and above all that of the dollar, in the face of competition (from China, the BRICS and even Europe).

Africa is far from being immune to upheavals. The bringing to heel of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) – allegedly at the suggestion of Elon Musk – accused of being a left-wing organisation, and the sudden and uncoordinated suspension of development aid for a period of 90 days (the world's biggest donor, with almost 70 billion dollars) is having a particular impact on the continent, the biggest recipient after Ukraine. Cooperation and direct aid are under threat (such as in the DRC, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia, etc.). The most fragile countries are the most affected. Thousands of civil society organisations are affected, with essential programmes brought to a standstill. The presidential AIDS relief programme, an example of bipartisan action, has apparently been suspended. It is estimated that it has saved more than 20 million lives to date. There is also the question of the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows 1,800 products from 32 countries on the continent to enter the US market without customs duties, and expires in September 2025.

As with other drastic executive orders, disarray and confusion are widespread. But the trend is clear. In Africa (as elsewhere), the US will favour its vassals even more, and will fight against those who are not perfectly aligned. And the sometimes surreal whims are not to be ruled out. As evidenced by the confrontational and presidential post accusing South Africa of practising racial discrimination against a certain category of its citizens. South Africa, Elon Musk's (traumatised) country of birth. And South Africa, which led the case against Israel to the International Court of Justice.

The key, therefore, is to carefully weigh up the balance of power. Face reality. And know how to negotiate with the master of the White House and his entourage. Follow developments extremely closely. Trump is not the first president to want to extend the executive powers. But his victory is not as spectacular as his camp would have us believe. Roughly speaking, America remains divided. In two years' time, the mid-term elections will take place, and the outcome is unpredictable. The checks and balances exist, even if they are weakened. The thousands of complaints and elements of the judicial system will slow down the machine. The states and cities led by the Democrats will resist him, as will elements of the media and civil society. Trump will also have to face up to divisions within his team, his own temperament and reality. The worst can happen, but the battle for the soul of America is far from over. And the world is much more complex, multifaceted and resilient than Donald Trump and his friends would like to believe.