Nathalie Delapalme
«Inequalities at the sub-national level can fuel dissatisfaction»

Meeting the expectations of young people must be a priority. Green growth could be one of the keys.

AM: The IIAG 2024 points to a worrying deterioration in the conditions in which democracy is exercised.

Nathalie Delapalme: Of the 16 sub-components of the IIAG, Participation, along with Security, shows the most worrying trajectory over the decade 2014-2023. In 2023, more than 77% of the population lived in a country where democratic participation was worse than in 2014, and over 30% in a country where this deterioration has accelerated since 2019. This trend is mainly driven by the deterioration in the Freedom of Association and Assembly and Space Granted to Civil Society indicators. There has also been a decline in digital freedoms in 40 countries (over 65% of the continent's population).

What is the reason for the decline in support for democratic values and institutions?

The democratic system advocated by Western partners, who often make it an essential condition of their support, does not appear to be able to provide adequate responses, neither to the major global challenges (climate, pandemics, conflicts, etc.) nor to the expectations of everyday life (job prospects, health, security, justice, etc.). According to the latest Afrobarometer survey, a majority of African citizens (66%) – 64% among young people – continue to favour a democratic regime as ‘the least bad system’. But confidence in national elections has fallen by an average of 8 points in the 30 countries surveyed. The growing instability evidenced by the resurgence of coups d'état and the rise in social unrest reflects this mistrust of democratic values and institutions. Admittedly, this shift away from democracy towards autocratic systems – embodied in Africa by military juntas – is not confined to Africa alone. But it is particularly worrying for Africa, because it undermines the progress made in terms of human and economic development, and seriously compromises the progress still to be made.

Public perceptions of economic opportunities and security are worsening, even when progress is being made! How can this discrepancy be explained?

The discrepancy between a substantial improvement – almost 3 points over the decade 2014-2023 for the Economic Opportunities component – and the public's perceptions in this area – which are down by more than 12 points – is cause for concern. This can be explained by a combination of factors. Firstly, the fact that the very appearance of progress is giving rise to growing expectations that are increasingly unfulfilled. Secondly, the fact that the information being circulated, particularly via social networks, tends to highlight what is not working, or what is not working as well as elsewhere. Lastly, there is the current limitation of the data available: these are national averages, so they do not capture the inequalities on the ground between geographical areas, between generations and between social categories. It is these inequalities at the sub-national level, which are likely to be growing, that can fuel dissatisfaction. This is a major trend that needs to be taken into account, as unfulfilled expectations generate frustration and anger, particularly among the continent's young people, who make up the vast majority of the population, and inevitably lead to conflict.

What factors might explain the disparities?

This immense continent cannot be reduced to a single average. It is a mosaic of 54 disparate states, with different geographies and economies. There is little in common between Algeria, which covers almost 2.5 million km2 , and the Seychelles archipelago, which covers barely 400 km2 , or between Nigeria, with its 225 million inhabitants, and Sao Tomé, with just over 200,000. Of course, we have to consider the solidity of the institutions and the ability of the leaders to address the many challenges they face – far greater than those of already developed countries – and, in particular, to meet the expectations of an ever-growing youth population. This is where the key challenge lies in terms of governance and leadership.

One positive aspect: infrastructure is progressing overall. So are investment initiatives and public policies paying off?

Of the 16 sub-components of the Index, the one dedicated to infrastructure is progressing the most, gaining more than 7 points at the continental level. For 95% of the population, the situation in this area is better in 2023 than in 2014. This progress is essentially linked to improvements in digital and communications equipment and, to a lesser extent, access to energy. That said, it is essential to consider both the trajectory achieved over the decade under review, and the level reached at the end of the period. As far as infrastructure is concerned, this level is still low, since this component only ranks 14th out of the IIAG's 16 sub-components. In 2023, the indicator for transport infrastructure ranks among the lowest of the 96 IIAG indicators. But investment by governments and their partners is paying off.

Is the energy transition on the right track on the whole?

The indicator measuring people's access to energy is one of the ten IIAG indicators that have made the most progress over the 2014-2023 decade. However, here again, the level achieved in 2023 remains one of the lowest in the IIAG and is woefully inadequate. There are still 600 million people, almost half the continent's population, who do not have access to electricity. It is essential that this transition takes place under conditions that accelerate access to energy for all. Otherwise, there will be no health, no education, no jobs, no development, and more conflict. There is no doubt that the continent has numerous and substantial sources of renewable energy - solar, wind and hydro. The fact remains, however, that renewable energy alone will not be able to equip 600 million people in the short term. Gas, by far the least polluting of the fossil fuels, produced by 18 of the continent's countries, remains an essential transitional energy source. But this means speeding up investment, not so much in production for export as in storage and distribution for the benefit of local populations.

The question remains as to the future of Africa's megacities in light of climate change and urban growth: how can these challenges be met?

The combination of strong demographic growth and a still very low rate of urbanisation – half that of Latin America – means that Africa is set to have the fastest urban growth rate in the world between now and 2050. Moreover, this growth is likely to occur primarily through a proliferation of medium-sized towns rather than the continued expansion of existing megacities. The development potential of the agricultural sector could also lead to a change in land-use planning scenarios. It remains crucial to place this strong urban growth in the context of climate change. This demanding context also opens up considerable opportunities: Africa and its partners could demonstrate their ability to design and build climate-friendly cities and infrastructure, capable of withstanding the impacts of climate change and reducing the carbon footprint of the materials and processes used.