Independence 2.0

It's been around sixty years, give or take a few, since Africa gained independence (and for some countries, like Namibia, a little over thirty years). In the grand scheme of the continent's history and that of humanity, it's not really that long, and it's definitely not as long as the two centuries of oppression by the ‘white man’. Yet, in sixty years, despite the challenge of building nations from scratch, despite the colonial era's disastrous socio-economic legacy, despite the burden of poverty and ongoing conflicts, Africa has changed. The continent is undergoing a transformation, driven by powerful structural forces. This reality is far more complex than the complacent and caricatural perception of a static and poorly governed continent. Whether we like it or not, the vast continent of Africa is on the move.

In the early 1960s, there were barely 300 million Africans. Today, that number has grown to just over 1.5 billion (a fivefold increase), and by 2050, it will likely reach around 2 billion. A marginalised, depopulated continent (due in particular to slavery and the slave trade) has, in little more than two generations, become one of the world's most populous regions. Soon, one in four people on Earth will be African. Africa will have more inhabitants than Europe, Latin America and North America combined. This young population will be a source of opportunities and modernisation, but also of disruption and tension. It will require governments to take action on education, employment and healthcare. Demographics shape history. Africa, an ancient continent populated by hundreds of millions of young people, will be central to the century's challenges. For better or for worse, or probably both at the same time.

We were very, very poor. We are still poor, but much less so, and the dynamic is different. Our wealth has increased fiftyfold. We have gone from an estimated GDP of $50 billion to a GDP of $2.6 trillion (constant). Some countries are achieving high growth rates over long periods [see our Côte d'Ivoire Discovery]. Some can claim to be truly emerging. By focusing on virtuous growth policies, Africa could reach the 5 trillion mark by 2030. And aim, in ‘moderate’ projections, for a threshold of $10 trillion by 2050. And a threshold of $15 trillion in ‘optimistic’ projections. This is China's current level.

This progress does not prevent precariousness and, above all, inequalities. Some Africans are literally living in the 21st century, in the global world, while many others are trapped in an economic and social Middle Ages. Between 35% and 40% of Africans still live on less than two dollars a day. But 350 million have entered the admittedly vague and fragile ‘middle class’. Infant mortality rates have been reduced by more than 70% since the 1960s, despite the population explosion. There is still room for improvement (43 deaths per 1,000 births in Africa, compared to a global average of 27 per 1,000). But it is still a great victory. Back then, life expectancy was less than 40 years. Today, we live for an average 65 years. It wasn't long ago that fewer than 10% of Africans could read, write or do basic maths. Today, literacy rates stand at 60% (with peaks of 90% in North and Southern Africa).

This once largely rural continent is urbanising at breakneck speed, with 45% of Africans now living in cities. Huge megacities are springing up (Kinshasa, Johannesburg, Cairo, Nairobi, Casablanca, and Abidjan, etc.) with huge problems, but also huge opportunities. These cities are accelerators of growth, modernisation, diversity and emancipation. It is also here that artists, creators, cultures, sounds and works with global reach are born, transforming the image that Africa has of itself and the image it projects to the outside world. Culturally, we are liberating ourselves, with no complexes. And we are reaping the benefits of technological revolutions. In 1960, Africans had almost no landlines. Today, it is estimated that over 500 million people have access to the Internet. With 1 billion active mobile connections...

Physically, the changes are visible; Africa is different. It is building itself despite everything, despite the difficulties it faces in mobilising funding. There is still a lot to be done, but those who are old enough to have travelled in the 1970s and 1980s can testify to this. The setting and the dynamics are no longer the same. We have entered a new era.

Africa is changing and transforming, but realism must prevail. The phenomenon is fragile, regression is always possible, and conflicts are far too numerous and devastating. Growth is there, but we have to aim higher and more sustainably. To break the paradigm of eternal poverty, to truly exist, to embark on Asian-style development processes, we have to move much faster (after all, Africa as a whole now has the same economic weight as France) and more boldly. We must focus on what matters: wealth creation, the liberation of energies, the promotion of enterprise and creativity, social inclusiveness, integration, and the consolidation of the rule of law, which is a necessary path towards political, cultural and religious pluralism.

This need for acceleration, multiplication and internal pacification should engage us all, collectively. Because the world is also changing. With the rise of populism in Europe and the United States, and the slowdown in China. With the ongoing climate crisis, its impacts and the illusory retreats it generates. Donald Trump, an almost caricatural embodiment of the era, makes no secret of his disdain for the continent. And for co-development. The president and his ally Elon Musk have literally wiped out USAID, the US aid agency and the world's largest donor (40% of the total amount). Washington also wants to disrupt global trade by reintroducing import tariffs. This will most likely include Africa. The AGOA preferential system, established by Bill Clinton in May 2000, is under threat. The issue is not just economic. The political and economic assault on South Africa [see article] shows the extent to which Trumpism is also a desire for domination. Pretoria is ‘guilty’ on several counts: for its supposed ‘anti-white’ policy, for the ‘wokeness’ inherent in the rainbow nation, for its multiracial approach, for its pro-Palestinian stance (which dates back to the years of struggle under Nelson Mandela and the ANC) and for its relatively independent international policy.

Yet, despite the turmoil, Africa remains largely unresponsive, passive, as if it were not really affected, with certain elites openly expressing a rather misguided fascination with strongmen, Trumpism, and Putinism. This Africa has much to lose from the new world order. In this new era, where every man for himself will become the norm, the most vulnerable will suffer significantly. Aid will decline sharply and structurally. It also marks the end of a long cycle of globalisation that led to a dramatic decline in poverty in the countries of the South. Rich countries, already reluctant to share and weakened by crises, will focus on themselves.

The short-term shock will be severe for Africa. But we must look beyond this dying system. We will have to draw on our internal strengths and resources. We can no longer accept that our health and humanitarian aid depend almost exclusively on external donors. We will have to create more wealth by becoming more competitive and rethinking our foreign trade. We must refine our arguments even further, increasing our bargaining power with each other, with new players, new powers and new companies. It is also important to project a more credible image of ourselves. We must rid ourselves of hollow slogans about anti-imperialism or neo-colonialism. True sovereignty is based on autonomous wealth and a realistic view of our surroundings and our interests. The new world is what it is. It is up to us to take our place in it.

Of course, writing about what needs to be done is easy. This new independence, this independence 2.0, will take a long time to build.

One of the keys to the reset, one of the methods for surviving and prospering, would paradoxically be to return to our roots, to propose a modern model of pan-Africanism, to give new meaning to the concept of integration, to think about and promote a collective future, such as that outlined in the AU's Agenda 2063 (‘The Africa We Want’). We have a lot in common, both historically and in our relationship with the world. We have a grand, complex project for a single market. We have wealth in hydrocarbons, mineral resources, rivers and agriculture. And yet our divisions prevail. Instead of joining forces, we fight each other. Instead of presenting a united front in international discussions, we arrive fragmented, with little influence or bargaining power. At the mercy of a donation or a ‘favour’ from a major power. There is no shortage of issues on which we could seek common and effective positions: climate, AGOA, trade talks, a new international financial architecture, the G20, the United Nations, representation on the UN Security Council, and more.

Faced with this demand for a new independence, for a new pan-Africanism, faced with the demands of this numerous, powerful and explosive youth, statesmen and stateswomen bear an immense responsibility. It is up to them to properly govern the res publica, or public affairs; it is up to them to free themselves from archaic power dynamics and chart a path towards modernity, creativity and freedom in order to fulfil Africa's promise.