Guidelines for an emerging economy
Economic development has been based on ambitious planning: guiding action, defining priorities and identifying the resources needed to achieve the set 2030 goals. This team effort will also make it possible to assess the challenges along the way.
Three national development plans (NDPs) have been implemented since 2012. The first, which ran until 2015, focused on rebuilding and reviving the country's economy after the long political crisis that had gripped it since 1999. The second NDP (2016-2020) continued this focus on infrastructure and investment, but also placed greater emphasis on industrialisation. It was at this point that the idea of processing raw materials locally gained traction, particularly when it comes to cocoa, which is the pride and wealth of the country, the world's leading producer of this highly desirable commodity. The third NDP (2020-2025) was drawn up with its sights set firmly on the ambitious ‘2030 Agenda’. It aims to accelerate industrialisation and infrastructure modernisation, and focuses on human capital development. A fourth NDP has been in the works since the beginning of the year and will cover the period 2026-2030. Will it be able to address the ongoing structural challenges to ensure ‘sustainable and inclusive growth’ and achieve the goal of emergence?
In 2011, Côte d'Ivoire attempted to turn the page after a decade of political and military crises that had severely weakened its economy. That year, growth was negative. The economic recession hit the country hard, leaving it in a dire state: high public debt, a weakened private sector and deteriorating infrastructure. Not to mention the state, the foundations of which needed to be rebuilt.
Against this backdrop, the national development plan was conceived as the first step towards the country's emergence. The head of state had a tool at his disposal: the Presidential Emergency Programme (PPU), a fund designed to enable him to act quickly when necessary.
A series of reforms, accompanied by an improvement in the business environment and debt reduction, were introduced to stimulate public and private investment. The strategy is bearing fruit. Investment rose from 9% of GDP in 2011 to 20% in 2015, a sign of renewed confidence. At the same time, per capita income rose by 25% between 2012 and 2015. The poverty rate fell from 51% in 2011 to 46% in 2015. Growth quickly took off, reaching 9% annually between 2012 and 2014 and even exceeding 10% in 2015. This was referred to as the ‘second Ivorian economic miracle’.
This momentum is reflected in the 2016-2020 National Development Plan. Building on the efforts initiated under the 2012-2015 NDP, the strategy aimed to strengthen the structural transformation of the economy, consolidate essential infrastructure and improve social welfare. The focus was on improving the motorway and road network. The completely renovated Abidjan International Airport was inaugurated and other infrastructure that facilitates trade and improves connectivity completed. Added to this was the desire to bring water and electricity to as many people as possible. Huge investments were made to cope with the rapid increase in the number of families and businesses connected to the electricity and water networks. Industrialisation got the boost it needed in designated industrial parks. Technological innovation was supported and the goal of local processing of raw materials remained a priority. The processing rate, estimated at around 20% in 2011, rose to around 36% in 2019, due to the increased processing of agricultural products such as cocoa, cashews and cotton, with the goal of reducing the country's dependence on raw exports.
The 2016-2020 NDP consolidated the foundations for development, maintaining sustained growth of 7-8% over the period.
“Our ambition is to make Côte d'Ivoire an emerging, modern and prosperous country. We have made undeniable economic progress, but we must continue to invest in our infrastructure and human capital,” said President Alassane Ouattara at the launch of the 2021-2025 NDP. These were the challenges ahead.
OVERCOMING OBSTACLES
Economic progress and diversification have not altered a historical fact: the country's wealth is largely based on agriculture. Although it has flagship products such as cocoa, coffee and rubber, Côte d'Ivoire still exports few value-added products. This paradox stems from inadequate local processing infrastructure. Take cocoa, for example, where only 30% of exports are processed products. The 2021-2025 NDP highlights the need to ‘continue industrialisation through local processing of raw materials and the promotion of entrepreneurship’. Beyond this example, the manufacturing sector (excluding agri-food and oil) did not exceed a 5% share of GDP in 2023.
Infrastructure and access to energy are other areas for improvement to support economic expansion. ‘Access to electricity rose from 33% in 2011 to 88% in 2023, which is a major step forward, but we still need to go further,’ stressed the Head of State in the same speech. Accordingly, the government announced that the entire country would have electricity coverage by 2030.
Poverty reduction remains a major challenge. Economic growth and support for economic activity among women and young people, combined with a more proactive social policy starting in 2019 (with the introduction of social safety nets), led to an improvement in living conditions. The poverty rate, which stood at over 50% in 2011, has dropped significantly: according to the World Bank, 37% of the population is currently living in poverty. However, inequalities persist, particularly between urban and rural areas. Minister of Economy, Planning and Development Nialé Kaba drove the point home: “Emergence must benefit all Ivorians, not just an elite few. Social justice is at the heart of our vision.” This inclusive approach also involves job creation. From 2015 onwards, President Ouattara aimed to achieve full employment for young people – 36% of the Ivorian population is aged between 16 and 35, a valuable reservoir of labour. Between 2011 and 2020, more than one million jobs were created for young people, according to the Ministry for the Promotion of Youth, Youth Employment and Civic Service.
Education also has a role to play. A series of reforms was launched to this end. The law making education compulsory from ages 6 to 16, adopted in September 2015, is a milestone on the continent. It has led to massive investment in school infrastructure and the hiring of thousands of new teachers. Technical and vocational education has been revived, and the private sector is playing a major role in the collective effort. The strategy is yielding significant results. Between 2011-2012 and the start of the 2023-2024 school year, the number of children enrolled in school rose from 2,920,791 to 4,385,213. Pass rates for exams leading to higher education are steadily improving. However, the increase in the number of children enrolled in school will require greater investment in teacher training.
THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE
Côte d'Ivoire, once blessed with abundant green spaces, has seen its forest cover dwindle to just 10%. This is due to deforestation, exacerbated by the expansion of intensive agriculture (cocoa, palm oil, etc.). “Striking a balance between the government's economic ambitions and the protection of biodiversity’ is a priority,” said Nialé Kaba. Several initiatives are being carried out, including a national forest investment plan aimed at restoring degraded ecosystems and promoting sustainable forest management, and an intensive tree-planting campaign.
These efforts are essential for biodiversity, but also for the fight against climate change, which represents a major risk for the country. Agriculture, water availability and, of course, food security are all impacted. President Ouattara took a stand on this issue at the Conference of the Parties at COP 26 in Glasgow, saying: “The fight against climate change requires a collective strategy and concrete commitments.” A national sustainable development strategy has therefore been rolled out.
Rapid urbanisation and river pollution are also problems that need addressing. This is particularly true for water resource management, where quality is threatened by population growth, industrial activity and urban development. The government is seeking to improve management through sanitation and wastewater treatment projects. This makes developing renewable energy another key challenge. With its rich resources, the country needs to diversify its energy mix to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. To do this, raising public awareness about protecting the environment has become crucial. Campaigns and environmental education programmes are being rolled out in schools and communities to encourage sustainable practices.
Good governance is essential for the country's emergence, and the fight against corruption and improved transparency are among the government's priorities. A solid institutional, legislative and regulatory framework is needed to build confidence, attract foreign investment and ensure sustainable development. To this end, a series of reforms and strategies were established by the Ouattara administration, including the 2024-2028 national anti-corruption strategy. According to Transparency International, Côte d'Ivoire currently ranks 69th out of 180 countries in the global corruption rankings. It intends to make further progress by 2030.
The goal of an emerging Côte d'Ivoire by 2030 is achievable. President Alassane Ouattara may wish to be the first to witness this, as head of state, if he decides to run in the October 2025 presidential election. Achieving this goal depends on continuing reforms and the commitment of all stakeholders. As he himself sums it up: “We must remain mobilised to make Côte d'Ivoire a model of growth and prosperity in Africa.” The path has been laid out, and the coming years will be decisive.