France in the era
of the “Rassemblement”

At the time of writing, the results of the second round of France’s snap parliamentary elections (7 July) were not yet in. The elections were triggered by the dissolution of the National Assembly, which itself followed on the heels of the shattering European elections for the presidential majority. There's no point in trying to figure out what convoluted logic could have prompted Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the Assembly in the wake of a heavy defeat, without preparing or mobilising his troops, at the start of the summer holidays and just a few weeks ahead of the Olympic Games...

Whatever the case, the plan backfired. The far right is rattling the gates of power. And the episode has led to the virtual dissolution of Emmanuel Macron himself. As the Americans put it, he has become a lame duck, ineligible and condemned to incessant manoeuvring to exist in some form of cohabitation. His friends and allies are actively preparing his succession.

It's only due to Republican withdrawals from the race that the Rassemblement National's victory is relative in terms of the number of seats it will win. But it is likely to emerge as France's largest party. Marine Le Pen is a true politician. She has acquired experience, skilfully embarking on rendering her party respectable. She has single-handedly managed a party short on human resources. Her chances of becoming president are real.

The Rassemblement National is not like other parties. It is a far-right party. Its roots go back to the Dreyfus affair, the nationalist leagues of the 1930s, the Vichy regime and the theorists of collaboration. A party born of Jean-Marie Le Pen and his radical excesses. A party founded on identity and anti-Semitism, that has made immigrants, foreigners, especially Arabs and blacks, the scapegoats for every crisis, that differentiates between ‘born French’ and ‘French on paper’. A party that embraces its anti-parliamentarianism, its authoritarianism, and its contempt for constitutional limits. A party that is masculinist, anti-abortion, anti-sexual minorities, and pro-family in the conservative sense of the term. It's appalling, but a sizable proportion of French people identify with it, obsessed as they are with security issues, fear of the Other (particularly Muslims) and social downgrading.

Yet France is still the Western country where the social adaptation of liberalism has gone furthest, with massive redistribution of wealth through taxation and a single social security system. It is the European Union country that has best negotiated its way out of the Covid pandemic, and so the economy is modernising faster than in Germany or the United Kingdom. The Rassemblement National's ‘victory’ underscores the resounding failure of this model, perceived as an elitist machine that destroys identity.

Without a credible counter-offer, the cost to France will be very high. Scapegoating will not solve the issues of security or immigration. Flimsy economic recovery plans will not get France out of debt. The financial markets will play the country's failure. Universities and research will be hard hit by closing access to foreigners. Entire sectors of the economy (tourism, construction, trade, etc.) will no longer be able to rely on foreign workers to keep the machine running (as we saw during the Covid pandemic). The much-cherished construction of Europe will be in crisis. The question of ties with Russia will dominate the agenda. There will no longer be any credible policy towards the global South, the Maghreb or Africa.

The battle is not necessarily lost. Nearly seven out of ten French people did not vote for the Rassemblement National. The millions of people with dual nationality have expressed their loyalty to the Republic. Because of its history and its ethnic, cultural and religious complexity, France is also a reactive country. It is the country of universalism, of the Age of Enlightenment, of revolutionary thought, of resistance in the face of occupation and collaboration, of ‘liberty, equality, fraternity’. There will be counter-fires, with radicals on the left. But also via the unions, collectives, some of the press, the judiciary, young people and the arts. It won't be an easy fight for the RN.

Whatever happens, France is about to embark on a long cycle of political crisis, with the mother of all battles in its sights: the 2027 presidential election. Just three years away! A long, hard three years. But it’s worth the battle.