The diplomat and the veteran

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti's Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2005, is a candidate for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC). His main opponent is Raila Odinga, the enduring Kenyan opponent. The verdict will be announced at the next AU summit in February 2025.

​​​​​​​Who will succeed Chad's Moussa Faki Mahamat as Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) for a renewable four-year term? The Assembly of the African Union comprising the 55* heads of state and government of the member countries will elect his successor by secret ballot and a two-thirds majority. The vote is scheduled for February 2025, at the next African Union Summit. Under the principle of regional rotation adopted in 2018, the new chairperson must come from East Africa. Apart from Mauritius's Anil Gayan and Madagascar's Richard Randriamandrato, two candidates stand out: Djibouti's current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf (59), and former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga (79).

While Kenya's bid may seem solid, given the country's heft (the region's largest economy) and the aura of its president William Ruto (elected in 2022), Djibouti (population: one million) has some serious advantages. Mahamoud Ali Youssouf emphasises his two decades of diplomatic experience and his multilingualism: “I am the only candidate capable of bridging the gap between the different regions of Africa, being French-speaking, English-speaking and Arabic-speaking.” He also highlights Djibouti's power of diplomatic projection: “The country is a key player in the Horn region,” (where tensions are running high), “and maintains links with both Western countries and China (all of which have naval bases there), as well as with the Gulf states, located just across the Bab el-Mandeb strait. For the past twenty years, Djibouti has been particularly active in terms of dialogue, peace and security”, Youssouf told Afrique Magazine in a recent interview, recalling his country's  ‘long tradition of listening‘.

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, as candidate for the chairmanship of the AUC, has outlined the priorities of his programme: ‘Silencing the Guns’ (especially in the Horn region, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo), implementing the AfCFTA, combating climate change and ensuring the ecological transition. He is critical of the ‘long-term approach’ of certain institutions (African Union, United Nations), which ‘does not always correspond to the urgent needs of the present’, and felt that it was the duty of African leaders from the post-independence generation to ‘rise to the level of Africa's youth', on a continent where the median age is under 20.

The candidacy of Raila Odinga, nicknamed ‘the Tractor’ (Tinga in Swahili) in his country for his robustness, has received the support of several English-speaking heavyweights: Kenyan President William Ruto, as well as Rwanda's Paul Kagame, Uganda's Yoweri Museveni, and former Nigerian head of state and diplomat Olusegun Obasanjo. Having been a presidential candidate in Kenya five times and losing all five times, his new ambition raises questions. Some people in Kenya are surprised by his pan-Africanist aspirations and by the fact that he can so easily leave the domestic political scene. His decision to run for the Commission chairmanship is also of concern to young people and to the demonstrators who, in June and July, challenged President Ruto's fiscal austerity measures, sometimes at the risk of their lives. Odinga's candidacy for the chairmanship of the AUC would appear to be motivated not only by Ruto's pan-Africanist ambitions, but also by the Kenyan head of state's desire to offer a way out to his ever restless opponent: according to Kenyan MP David Sankok, a Raila Odinga/Rigathi Gachagua (Kenya's current vice-president) ticket would constitute ‘the greatest threat’ to Ruto's re-election in 2027. For his part, the Tractor denies any compromise. Rejecting the theory of an early ‘golden retirement’, he points to his ‘wisdom’, his political experience and also his knowledge of the AU, where he held the position of High Representative for Development and Infrastructure. He won this low-profile post in 2018 with the support of then Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who was (already?) keen to keep him out of national politics...

Whatever happens, Raila Odinga will also have to take his age into account. In January next year, the venerable opponent will celebrate his 80th birthday. He's 20 years older than Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, on a continent that is young, very young. If Odinga's bid for the chairmanship of the AUC were to fail, it would be yet another setback for Nairobi, following the 2017 defeat of Amina Mohamed's bid against Chad's Moussa Faki Mahamat.

Be that as it may, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Raila Odinga have embarked on a full-scale grassroots campaign, travelling far and wide. Their emissaries and special envoys are also playing their part. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, is relying in particular on the diplomatic calendar to support his candidacy. And William Ruto has no problem including Raila Odinga in his international travels, as was the case at the recent China-Africa summit in Beijing and at the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Obviously, both camps are aiming to win support that goes beyond traditional political and linguistic alliances. They will also have to take into account the composition of the new AU Commission. In addition to the chairmanship, there are eight open positions on the Commission. And ultimately, it's the heads of state who vote. Someone familiar with the process commented: “They are the ones who decide. They prefer to avoid overly political profiles and tricky egos. By nature, they prefer a diplomat. And some of them find President William Ruto's pan-African ambitions annoying. He's due to take over from Paul Kagame as head of the committee in charge of the Union's reforms. That's a lot for Kenya.”

The stakes are high. Whatever the outcome of the election, the future chairperson of the AUC will have to deal with an arduous agenda of crises and reform an institution in a state of inertia: ‘I ask myself this question, and I ask it of you. Since when and for how long will the edifice stand and resist the collapse of its pillars and foundations?’ Moussa Faki Mahamat gravely declared at the last summit of the African Union, meeting in Addis Ababa in February this year.

* The AU recognises the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

Chairpersons of the African Union Commission (AUC)
2002-2003 (interim): Amara Essy (Côte d'Ivoire) 
2003-2008: Alpha Oumar Konaré (Mali) 
2008-2012: Jean Ping (Gabon) 
2012-2017: Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (South Africa) 
2017-2024: Moussa Faki Mahamat (Chad)